Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Streaming for steals

Thursday features a typically light slate, with just 11 games. Action begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, with the first of four matinees. Setting lineups with a shorter schedule is usually challenging since there are no doubt some fantasy stalwarts with the day off, but they’re too productive to simply drop.

Going back to draft day, a viable strategy in category-based leagues was to focus resources mostly on power and run production, then to stream steals on Mondays and Thursdays. The key to success with this plan is to identify the most promising matchups to take full advantage.

There are two general keys to streaming for steals. First, it’s no longer necessary to avoid left-handed pitchers, as the stolen base frequency and success rate are now nearly the same against pitchers of all types. In addition, the inability of a given team to control stolen bases is far more important than the other team’s propensity to run. In general, the better stolen base contributors run regardless of the opposition. This doesn’t mean you should avoid secondary options on a team that runs a lot, only that the data suggests that the quality of opposition is what truly drives the numbers.

To that end, a great way to fortify your steals is to stack up against the poorest teams at preventing steals. Six of the bottom seven sides are in action Thursday. They are, in order of futility, the New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels. (The San Francisco Giants, who are the second worst, are off.)

Let’s see which players from the teams facing these weak SB defenses you should target for Thursday:

• The Miami Marlins rank just 21st in steals per game, but they could look to take advantage of the Mets. Jesus Sanchez (0.6% rostered in ESPN leagues), Nick Gordon (0.4%) and Otto Lopez (1.3%) are the prime targets.

• The Seattle Mariners host the White Sox. The Mariners rank 15th in steals per game, with Dylan Moore (5.9%), Josh Rojas (3.7%) and Luke Raley (3.4%) meeting the criteria. Moore is slated to return from the paternity list on Thursday. If he’s not in the lineup, Ryan Bliss is also a threat to run. Bliss already has three steals in just 12 games, after recording 28 over 50 games with Triple-A Tacoma prior to his late May promotion.

• The Detroit Tigers entertain the Nationals. They’ve registered the second fewest steals per game so far and, with Javier Baez out, nobody truly stands out. That said, Wenceel Perez (2.6%) comes the closest with four steals.

• The Cubs visit the Rays. For Chicago, Pete Crow-Armstrong (2.1%) is the best SB option, followed by Mike Tauchman (8.9% rostered). For Tampa Bay, Jose Caballero (15.4%) is the slate’s best candidate with 22 steals through Tuesday’s action. Richie Palacios (1.0%), Jose Siri (1.7%) and Amed Rosario (17.9%) also make the cut.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Angels into the desert where the resurgent Jo Adell (7.0%) leads the way, followed by Zach Neto (5.1%) and Kevin Pillar (10.5%).

Everything else you need to know for Thursday

• Mets SP Luis Severino (23.5%) is the top choice when he takes the hill in Citi Field against the Marlins. He has been solid, authoring a 3.25 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over his 12 starts, spanning 72 innings. He has fanned only 58 batters but has kept the ball in the yard with just five homers allowed. The Marlins have scored the third-fewest runs per game, fueled by the second worst wOBA in the league.

• Ignore the 5.17 ERA posted by Rays SP Taj Bradley (11.3%). Yielding nine runs over 3⅓ innings to the Baltimore Orioles can’t be stricken from the record, but the 2.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP (with 36 punchouts over 28 frames) in his other five outings is more representative of what to expect from Bradley when he faces the Cubs at Tropicana Field.

• It’s best to deploy St. Louis Cardinals SP Lance Lynn (34.1%) at home against a team without much power. Both boxes are checked on Thursday with the Pittsburgh Pirates visiting Busch Stadium. The guests sport the seventh-lowest HR% in the league.

• Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt (21.4%) enjoys a favorable home date against the Angels. Pfaadt is in a rut, with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over his past three outings, spanning 18⅓ innings. However, he has rung up 18 with only four walks over this stretch.

• Nationals SP MacKenzie Gore is showing signs he can be the dependable starter the club hoped they had acquired in the Juan Soto deal. His .363 BABIP is artificially inflating his 1.37 WHIP, but 27.6% strikeout and 7.5% walk rates are better than league average. On Thursday, The Nationals are in Motown where Gore will face a Tigers lineup with a below-average wOBA and an above-average K%.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday