It is never too early to talk NFL and specifically discuss where to find value in the Futures Market. Earlier today, the boys of Bet the EDGE sat down with the fellas from Simms Unbuttoned. Among the questions posed by Ahmed Fareed was simply one bet you feel confident in today.
Drew Dinsick (@whlare_capper) led off with a look at the AFC North.
“In the AFC North this year’s champion is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals (+145). They have wins against the Ravens (+130) based on schedule alone. Their fourth-place opponents compared to the Ravens’ first-place opponents, is a delta of about one and a half wins. So, in my opinion, they are starting the season with a 1½ game lead on your most likely divisional opponent, the Ravens. The Browns’ (+600) defense is going to be just as good as last year, but I am not a buyer in Deshaun Watson, and I think the Steelers (+850) are going to take a massive step backwards even though they may have kind of upgraded the quarterback position. I still have a lot of problems with that offense.”
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Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) continued with the belief in the Bengals but pointed to their quarterback as the key.
“I’m going to just go with Burrow (+900) for MVP. It just to me feels like that kind of year…I know you guys are talking about the #1 seed…I don’t even know if they have to be the number one seed, though. If they were a really good #2, and Joe had a phenomenal year, I think he probably could overcome that…If you make me call one, I’m going to call that right now.”
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) stayed with the individual awards market and went with Micah Parsons (+600) for Defensive Player of the Year.
“Micah Parsons shouldn’t be +600 to win Defensive Player of the Year. In his three years in the league, he has finished second, second, and third (in this market). He is the guy that has, I think, the highest pedigree of anyone…He’s been eerily consistent. He’s had 13, 13½, and 14 sacks. He just passes every test that you would want from that type of player. He’s been incredibly durable in his career. He’s missed one game his entire career, and it was because he had Covid…At +600 it says he has a 14% chance to win Defensive Player of the Year. Micah Parsons has more than a 14% chance to win that award. He should be pried at more like +400.”
Ahmed Fareed (@ahmedNBC) closed the segment looking for where to find value on the Detroit Lions. Dinsick recommended he go to the top of the board.
“Just play the Lions to win the Super Bowl (+1200). The NFC North is going to be tough, but we saw the Lions go into San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game last year. We saw that that team has the ability to go on the road if they have to in the playoffs and at least compete in those tough games.”
Yes, it is time to start searching for value in NFL Markets as OTAs are underway which means training camps are right around the corner.
*Odds provided by DraftKings