A former national chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, Maxi Okwu, has said that going by the kind of electoral management body currently in Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu’s reelection victory in 2027 is a fait accompli. He noted that Tinubu, being a politician, is very adept in his political game and knows what to do to win his reelection bid. He stated that anybody who thinks that he would lose the 2027 election might just be dreaming.
In this interview with the DAILY POST, Okwu, a lawyer, also looks at the just concluded governorship election in Edo State, the fate of Governor Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State in his party, the APGA, the human rights records under President Tinubu and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, minister, Nyesom Wike’s threat of fire in states governed by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, among other issues. Excerpts!
Looking at the complaints of the PDP and the Labour Party, LP, in the just concluded governorship elections in Edo State and the report of some civil society organisations that monitored the election, like the YIAGA Africa, what is your honest assessment of the election?
The first question will be: Did the election reflect the wishes of the people of Edo State? I don’t know; I am not from Edo. The Edo People knew exactly what happened but as an informed observer, I feel worried about the way our elections are being conducted, or the way the election management body has totally destroyed the confidence of the people.
People no longer have confidence in the electoral umpire called the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. So, when the people are frustrated with the election management body, what does that tell you? Now, it is clear that the so-called Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, and all the electronic improvements by INEC have been truncated by human factors.
And that is why I agree with former President Goodluck Jonathan that no matter how good the electronic gadgets are, if the person behind the machine is fraudulent or not sincere, it will destroy whatever may have been the gains of using such electronic machines.
Now, tell me why they will use the INEC Result Viewing portal, IREV portal, and all those gimmicks at the polling booth levels and they will go to one small room and begin to do manual calculation; does it make sense to you? Does it not destroy the entire idea about the IREV portal and the rest of the technology? What should happen is that as soon as the polling unit results are out, anybody can calculate it, just like it happens in the United States of America.
In America, the county result is the result. Once the county result is resolved, the CNN or any media outlet can calculate, announce and even project the final outcome of the election. But in Nigeria, you have to wait for one glorified lecturer or professor in one room at one centre to calculate before the final result is given; it is like going back to the Stone Age.
With what is happening between the Anambra State Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo and his party, the APGA, coupled with the threat of the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Abdullahi Ganhuje, do you see Ganduje’s threat happening in Anambra in 2025?
We don’t know Soludo’s party in Anambra because he is no longer in the APGA. I think the only way for him now is to go to the APC, except he goes back to the national chairman of APGA, Edozien Njoku and Chekwas Okorie to reconcile with them.
If he doesn’t do that, then he is APC-bound because he has lost the party. I don’t see him going to the PDP and that may be what Ganduje meant when he said the APC would take Anambra. As for Ondo, it is a walk over for the APC. So, the way things are right now, 2027 is an advantage to Tinubu for those who are preparing for 2027.
Do you think victory is sure for Tinubu in 2027?
Yes, I don’t see anything stopping him. I have totally lost confidence in our electoral management body, the INEC. I will just sit down in my house and watch; it will be a case of ‘sidon look.’ What I am saying is that with Tinubu as President, there is no hope for anybody in 2027. Tinubu is the first real politician to get to the presidency; he knows what to do. So, anybody dreaming about denying him a second term, if God keeps us alive, is joking as far as I am concerned.
The recent arrest of the president of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, Joe Ajaero by the police, the invasion of the office of Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project, SERAP, Tinubu’s human rights record, and the arrest, detention and release of Omoyele Sowore, among other assaults on the people’s rights seems to have brought the human rights record under Tinubu to question, what is your take?
It is shocking given the pro-democracy credentials of the president; it is shocking that under his watch the things he fought against are happening. He is the commander in chief, and the bulk stops on his table, so he cannot be absolved in the whole saga. I am shocked, despondent and frustrated.
Recall our political history that in times like this, men of honour and courage have risen to show their disappointment, disillusionment and disagreement under the military regime. So, it is surprising that under a civil administration, everybody seems to have been cowed; people have recoiled to their shells and are indoors.
Recall what happened at Ojota in 2014 when former President Goodluck Jonathan removed subsidy and increased the pump price of petrol to a mere N140, the country was almost set ablaze with protest.
Today, we are at over N1200 and nobody is talking; everybody has kept quiet. It is shocking. It appears as if all of us are under some kind of spell or influence that we don’t know our left from our right again. Past leaders who have shown courage have suddenly become cowards. And I have argued earlier that a popular nationwide revolution is impossible in Nigeria.
It is impossible due to ethnic leverages and centripetal forces. Look at what happened with the last #Endbadgovernance protest; it was a non-effect. Even when the president spoke, he didn’t address any of the issues raised at the protest and nothing happened. So, I don’t know what to say again. In fact, I have withdrawn into my shell because I am tired.
Recently the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja, and former Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, threatened to put fire in the state of any governor who tries to interfere in the affairs of the PDP in Rivers State; what are your thoughts on such a threat?
Wike has become a rogue element as far as I am concerned. I don’t know what he is still doing in the PDP. The PDP is a total failure. How can they allow a man who is wearing a coat of many colours ride roughshod over them? You can see how the national body gave him the PDP structures in Rivers; I don’t know how he did it.
Honestly, that is unbelievable, though I heard that his man, the acting chairman, has stepped down and there could be changes. But honestly, I can say that Wike is a magician, considering the way he has been able to play from all sides and control the destinies of some people in the APC and still remain in charge as a capon in the PDP.
Honestly, PDP is a great disappointment in my humble submission; they are not playing the opposition role the way it should be. Look at the way the APC fought them yard for yard, tooth for tooth; now they seem to have become beholden to the APC and it is the biggest party after the APC.
So, part of the reason we are where we are today is because they are not playing their proper roles. In fact, it has completely been overtaken by the APC. I don’t know what is happening in Nigeria. The Obedient Movement seems to be amorphous, although I noticed that Peter Obi is somehow trying to streamline it by making Yunusa Tanko its general coordinator.
The Obedient Movement is bigger than the LP; that’s the fact but it was an amorphous body. So, if Obi now realizes that he needs to get it properly organized and structured, that is good because it is better to be late than never. It is belated but it is welcome. Let us see what Tanko can do. I know him and I know his credentials, but let’s see what he can do. As for Wike and the PDP, I can only say that I am disappointed that he is still in the party causing problems here and there.
Recently, the Federal Government raised an alarm regarding the rate of suicide in Nigeria, what’s your take?
How can a government which under Section 14(2b) of the Constitution has the primary purpose of the welfare and security of the people of Nigeria be talking about being alarmed? If the Federal Government is alarmed, what do we do? Should we run away?
So, if the Federal Government is alarmed, we should go into hiding. It is their responsibility to take care of the welfare and security of the people of Nigeria. They have failed on welfare; they have failed on security. That is the truth. So, how would people not commit suicide?
Right now, the cost of living has gone over the roof; I don’t know how people survive. The Naira has practically become like the Ugandan money under Idi Amin if not worse. If you know what the ordinary man on the street goes through, then you will understand why people keep committing suicide.
So, as far as I am concerned, it is the responsibility of the government to create an enabling environment for people to thrive and be happy; the government is not doing so. We are tired of saying that they are not doing so because again there was an opportunity for the people to vote and bring in a people’s government, but somehow, they didn’t do it.
The APC administration, right from former President Muhammadu Buhari that was a total disaster, has continued to make life difficult for Nigerians. The change of guard does not change anything. APC under Buhari was an unmitigated disaster; they practically killed Nigeria. In a proper democracy, there is no way the APC would have been returned but here we are with another APC government. I will not die.
The former INEC chairman, Attahiru Jega has submitted a report of a committee set up to find a lasting solution to farmer/herder clashes in Nigeria to the President. He has recommended open grazing and ranching as panacea to farmer/herder clashes in Nigeria, do you agree with the recommendations?
To me, open grazing is an ancient practice of livestock or cattle rearing. The world has moved on from that practice. And when we used to do this, it wasn’t an issue until Buhari came. We need to look at the reason why suddenly it became an issue, herders that used to hold sticks suddenly began to wield AK-47 and rampaging all over the country, trespassing on people’s farms and destroying crops and nobody was brought to book. Why would they be emboldened? The government has no answers.
We need to review our security architecture and find a way to remove everything from Abuja because Abuja cannot handle it. And find a way to see that everybody is armed or properly secured. One group cannot have the monopoly of handling weapons while others are denied access to even double barrel or short-gun.
If there is a level playing field in terms of armament or acquisition of lethal weapons, the brazenness and impunity with which these rogue elements attack innocent people on soft spots will be reduced.
But we must fundamentally review the security architecture of this nation. We must go back to 1963 and find out how it was done. All boots on ground must be local; that way they can easily secure the people more effectively.