Arsenal’s path to silverware is overshadowed by a lack of prolific strikers, an issue that has only intensified compared to last season.
With Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus injured and no new number nine in sight, is betting on the Gunners to win a trophy a risk worth taking?
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
New Season, Same Issues
Arsenal’s status as the fifth-highest scoring Premier League team (39 goals) masks deeper problems in creating big chances.
The Gunners rank 11th in total shots taken (276, averaging 13.8 per game), 7th in expected goals (xG) with 34, boasting the league’s fourth-best positive differential, and since December, they are 8th in chance conversion.
Arteta’s side also stand out, among the top six clubs, for not having a single player with double-digit goals (Kai Havertz has scored seven times so far), which highlights the need to bring a sharper centre forward.
Despite boasting the league’s best defence, with their xGA (expected goals against) matching the 18 goals they’ve actually conceded, Arsenal still face challenges. Recent performances against Newcastle and Manchester United have highlighted these issues. In these games, they took a total of 49 shots but managed to score just once, and that was from a set-piece.
With Bukayo Saka, who ranks second in expected assists (5.63) behind Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, and his likely backup Ethan Nwaneri both unavailable, there are increasing calls for manager Mikel Arteta to bolster the squad. This need is further emphasized by Gabriel Jesus’s prolonged absence due to a serious knee injury.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was the last player to score more than 20 goals in the Premier League for Arsenal during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Yet, last summer the only offensive player brought in was Raheem Sterling, who so far has created just 0.51 xG and 0.10 expected assists in seven league appearances.
Domestic Silverware Looks Like A Long Shot
The recent 2-1 victory over Tottenham in the North London derby offered Arsenal an opportunity to narrow the gap with leaders Liverpool, currently four points ahead with a game in hand. However, the game once again showcased Arsenal’s attacking shortcomings.
The Gunners dominated possession, but only four of their 14 shots were on target for an overall xG of 1.45. Arteta’s management, now spanning five years, has revitalized the club into title contenders from mid-table mediocrity. However, only the 2020 FA Cup win stands as a testament to this resurgence.
According to our in-house projection tools, Arsenal have a 13.4% chance of winning the league, which makes the current average odds of 4.33, with an implied probability of 23%, too low to be worth a risk. Also the Gunners’ prospect of reaching the League Cup final seems very slim.
Out of 32 instances, only one team has successfully qualified after losing the first leg of a semi-final by two or more goals. That was Aston Villa, who beat second-tier Tranmere Rovers on penalties in 1993/1994.
Twenty teams have lost the first leg semi-final by exactly two goals as Arsenal did, therefore, the Gunners have statistically no more than a 5% chance of making it to Wembley. This makes betting on them to win the trophy, at average odds of 3.25, and implied probability of 31%, an option to avoid.
Can They Win In Europe Even Without A New Striker?
According to our in-house model, Arsenal remain the favourites (24.4% chance compared to Liverpool’s 20.5%) to lift the Champions League trophy.
However, last season, the Gunners failed to score in both of their away knockout matches, against Porto and Bayern Munich. Furthermore, they ended the competition with the fourth worst xG per game ratio (1.44), with only Lazio, Napoli, and Borussia Dortmund posting lower figures among the teams that entered the Round of 16.
This season, Arsenal’s European xG record has seen a slight improvement (1.54), but they are only ninth in terms of attacking moves produced in the competition. It appears that unless Arteta signs a new striker, Arsenal’s chances of progressing in Europe will largely depend on their defensive organisation.
There is a silver lining for those willing to place their bets on Arsenal, as four of the last eight Champions League finalists (Manchester City twice, Inter Milan, and Chelsea) have been teams that conceded the fewest goals during those campaigns. Despite this, the current average odds (4.33) suggest that most bookmakers are not placing a great deal of trust in the club from North London.