Champions League teams have made full use of home advantage through the first six matchdays of the extended first round.
espite home teams massively outperforming away teams so far, bookies have presented us with some long odds on home teams for matchday seven.
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Significant Home Advantage
Eleven Champions League teams are winless away. Seven are winless at home. Ten have under two points on the road, compared with five who have zero or one point at home. All of the 36 teams in the competition have played three matches at home and three away ahead of the competition resuming for matchday seven. Moreover, eleven teams have seven or more points from their three home matches. Only three can match that tally on the road.
It’s not a surprise that home advantage matters in European competition. Matches are played midweek, with teams missing out on training days due to the travel required. The atmosphere is often intense across the continent, when the lights are bright and the Champions League anthem echoes around the stadium. Any win away in the Champions League is an achievement.
It’s interesting that the bookies haven’t sufficiently adjusted given that the new Champions League format provides more time for bookmakers to alter their odds. There’s a larger first-round sample than previous years, and it’s clear away wins have been hard to come by.
Value on Matchday Seven
With what we know about home advantage in Europe’s premier club competition, there are some very generous prices on offer for matchday seven of the 2024/25 Champions League (especially on Tuesday).
Monaco beat Barcelona and Red Star Belgrade at home. They led 2-1 to Benfica before Wilfried Singo was sent off. Moreover, prior to facing Arsenal over the weekend, Aston Villa had lost six of their last eight away matches, including a defeat away to Club Brugge. Unai Emery’s side have struggled for consistency all season.
Brugge’s win over Villa was the first of two at home in the Champions League. Additionally, the Belgian club host a Juventus side which has dropped points to Lille and Villa on the road in the Champions League.
The Old Lady has five wins from 18 matches across all competitions before facing Milan. Given their performances in the Champions League so far, Brugge do not deserve to be such heavy underdogs. The 4/6 price on the hosts to avoid defeat is sensational value.
Elsewhere, an in-form Atletico Madrid are narrowly favoured over Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s men have won nine in a row, but their last two away matches in the Champions League ended in a draw against Brest and a 4-0 drubbing at Anfield. In addition, Lille and Real Madrid are the only teams to avoid defeat at the Metropolitano since August.
Bologna have struggled stepping up to the Champions League, yet they have only lost three times at home all season. Borussia Dortmund have lost seven of their last 10 on the road.
Barcelona’s recent cup performances suggest they may have improved after their poor finish to 2024, but it’s quite generous to label them as strong favorites against Benfica. The Portuguese club beat Atletico Madrid emphatically earlier this season, and have won all but three of their home matches.
Bookies are underestimating the importance of home advantage in the Champions League. Yes, the best teams get plenty of wins on the road against inferior opposition. The teams we’re backing, though, are not overmatched minnows – these are Champions League-calibre sides with a significant home advantage that could make all the difference on a pivotal matchday seven.