With fresh firepower and creativity, Aston Villa’s hopes for successive Champions League campaigns might be back on.
With the January transfer window closing, which Premier League teams have attempted to bolster their squads for the season run-in?
Which Premier League Sides Fared Best in the January Transfer Window?
The January transfer window closed on Monday evening, with all 20 English Premier League managers now knowing the squads they have to work with until the end of May. Some teams invested more heavily than others in the window, but which clubs got the best value and can their new recruits deliver results?
As expected, Manchester City outspent all EPL clubs in January, spending £180m. That’s almost half of the £370m invested by the entire division in the last few weeks.
The second-biggest spenders were Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves spent £42m on two new powerful defenders, Emmanuel Agbadou and Nasser Djiga, as well as holding midfielder Marshall Munetsi.
It wasn’t a headline-making transfer window by any means. Moreover, six of the 20 EPL clubs haven’t spent a penny in January. With Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) reigning supreme in the English top flight, many clubs opted to save their resources for the summer window. Which sides made significant strides toward achieving their aspirations for this season?
Why Aston Villa Are a Stronger Shout for a Top 4 Finish Now
Aston Villa have picked up just two points from their last three Premier League games. Their latest fixture was a surprise 2-0 defeat at West Midlands rivals Wolves. Their Champions League exploits have led to some occasionally lackluster performances from Unai Emery’s side.
Their points-per-game average over their last eight games has dipped to 1.50. Only Chelsea (1.13) have a lower PPG average over the last eight games in the top 8 of the table.
Newcastle (2.25) and AFC Bournemouth (1.88) have been in exceptional form through the festive and New Year period, giving Emery plenty to think about in the January window.
Scoring goals has been Villa’s biggest issue. They are the lowest scorers in the top half of the Premier League. Moreover, they are one of only two teams with a negative goal difference right now.
Consequently, the loan acquisition of Manchester United outcast Marcus Rashford has the potential to bring much-needed firepower and support for main man, Ollie Watkins. Rashford has outperformed his 1.7 xG (expected goals) in the Premier League this season, with four goals in 15 appearances.
Meanwhile, former Real Madrid playmaker, Marco Asensio, brings much-needed flair and poise to the Villa midfield. Asensio had an xG of 5.6 from his 12 Ligue 1 appearances for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) earlier this season, while racking up four assists.
Villa’s odds for a top-four finish have drifted significantly to 17.00, giving them a mere 5.88% chance. However, they are due to face Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Manchester City and AFC Bournemouth between now and May. Victories in most of these six-pointers could tip the scales back in their favour.
Further still, a positive February with their new recruits against Ipswich, Chelsea and Crystal Palace could create a potential cash-out opportunity.
Have Ipswich Done Enough to Avoid Relegation?
At the other end of the table, newly-promoted Ipswich were one of the more active sides in the January window, bringing in five new recruits at an initial outlay worth £22m.
The Tractor Boys’ inexplicable 2-1 home defeat to bottom club Southampton, coupled with Wolves’ impressive home win over Villa, leaves Kieran McKenna’s side three points from safety. However, Wanderers have a significantly better goal difference, so it’s more like a four-point deficit.
Perhaps the biggest signing of their window was on deadline day, with West Bromwich Albion keeper, Alex Palmer, joining in a £2m deal. Ipswich’s current number one, Aro Muric, has endured a nightmare start to his Portman Road career. The Kosovan international has made five errors leading to goals this season, the most of any player in the league.
Muric needed to be taken out of the firing line, with Palmer – the winner of last season’s Golden Glove in the EFL Championship – seen as reliable and composed.
Ipswich have been competitive in most of their games this season. Furthermore, Town have dropped 17 points from winning positions, four more than Wolves and nine more than Leicester.
McKenna will be banking on Palmer to avoid any individual errors like Muric. He’ll also be hoping star loan recruit, Brighton’s Julio Enciso, can provide some match-winning skill and flair, as Ipswich could still have a major say in the race for survival.
Their current odds of 1.28 for relegation fell on the shorter side (a probability of 78%), especially since any unexpected wins over Villa or Spurs in February could close the gap between themselves and Wolves to zero. Wanderers face Liverpool, AFC Bournemouth and Fulham in their next three games.