Typically, more goals are scored in the second leg of knockout fixtures, but will that be the case in this tournament? Here’s what we can expect.
The Champions League knockout phase playoffs are here, and the goals scored market could be worth exploring.
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Atalanta’s Goal-Scoring Prowess
Club Brugge vs Atalanta – Over 2.5 at 1.90
Barcelona (28) and Borussia Dortmund (22) were the only teams to top Atalanta’s tally of 20 goals in the league stage of this year’s competition. What’s interesting for this tie in particular is that 13 of those goals came away from home – and only seven at home. Brugge, meanwhile, have kept just three clean sheets in their last eight matches.
Looking back at the last three editions of the Champions League knockout stages, first legs have had fewer goals in them – but the difference is minimal. Out of 42 knockout ties, second legs have been higher-scoring on 22 occasions, but the Italians might defy this trend.
Ademola Lookman could be absent, but Mario Retegui is not – and he just netted four past Verona at the weekend. Priced at 2.62 to score anytime here, and with nine goals in his last eight matches, it’s hard to bet against him.
Benfica Among the Biggest Creators
Monaco vs Benfica – Benfica Over 1.5 at 2.25
Benfica rank eighth in this season’s tournament for big chances created (30), and seventh for their xG of 17.3. This is something they’ll be very proud of as they prepare to face Monaco.
The Ligue 1 side aren’t in the best shape at the moment, either. They may have picked up a notable win over Aston Villa last month, but that was their only clean sheet since mid-December. On top of that, the Portuguese outfit scored three when they last visited Stade Louis-II in November, which gives them a psychological edge.
Monaco’s xG conceded in the UCL this season is 9.2 per match, and Benfica will definitely sense an opportunity to take control of the tie.
A Potentially Big Mismatch in Glasgow
Celtic vs Bayern – Over 3.5 at 2.00
What happens when you match the team with the highest xG in the UCL against one of the weakest defences left in the competition? We’ll find out this week.
Celtic have home advantage against the German giants, and that could be important considering Bayern’s away form in the UCL. Vincent Kompany’s side have lost five of their last seven games on the road in this competition, albeit largely against stronger opponents. The Scots, meanwhile, are unbeaten in six European games at Celtic Park.
Harry Kane is priced at 1.57 to score anytime, but with six of Celtic’s last eight games going over 3.5 goals, there could be value in backing a few more.
A Routine Win for PSG
Brest v PSG – PSG Over 2.5 at 2.00
PSG’s last defeat came in November, and it wasn’t until May 2024 that a French side managed to beat them. Luis Enrique’s team are hard to get anything from, and even tougher to beat – as Brest found out recently.
Ousmane Dembele scored a hat-trick and Goncalo Ramos added a brace to defeat the hosts when they met in Ligue 1 this month. More goals are expected.
Looking back over the last eight PSG matches, only two haven’t finished with over 2.5 totals, and all of them resulted in victory anyway. Brest will face a tough challenge, especially considering PSG’s confidence after winning three consecutive UCL matches, including one against Manchester City.
In total, 14 of the last 19 meetings between these two sides have finished with over 2.5 goals, accounting for 74%. Brest have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches.