It’s been a quarter of a century since Rayo Vallecano last played European football. Could this be the year that changes?
Inigo Perez’s men have lost just one of their last 12 across all competitions and now sit in sixth place. A European place is well within their reach.
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Rayo’s Race for Europe
Secure top four finish at 100.00
Rayo Vallecano survived relegation by one place last season, five points clear of La Liga’s bottom three. This makes their current position all the more impressive. Perez has done a remarkable job up to now, but can Los Franjirrojos maintain this level of success?
When they lost just two of their nine games at the start of the 2024/25 campaign, some may have attributed it to good luck. However, Perez’s success in steering the team to safety last season showed he was simply just picking up where he left off. They had won five out of 24 when he was appointed and went on to lose only six of the 14 he oversaw.
They have only been defeated six times in 23 matches this season, and it is now time to start taking their young manager very seriously. The 37-year-old was playing in La Liga just three years ago, but he has adapted to management quite easily – to Rayo’s benefit. Victories over teams like Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid backed up their top six intentions, as have impressive draws with Real and Atletico Madrid.
Their defensive record (conceding 24) is almost as good as Real’s, but a lack of goals – and a real goalscorer – could ultimately be their downfall. Jorge de Frutos is their top scorer with four, and though a spread of goals is a positive, they probably don’t get enough.
The top four is more than likely out of their grasp given there’s only one place available behind Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico. However, based on their current form, there’s no reason they can’t ensure European football at El Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas next season. It has been a long wait since 2001.
Proving Their Top-Six Credentials
Rayo to beat Villarreal at 3.07
February won’t define the rest of Rayo’s season, but a successful next two weeks could give their credentials a huge boost. Barcelona are up next, followed by fellow European challengers, Villarreal – both massive games for them. A Nou Camp victory seems unlikely, but a draw isn’t off the cards, while a home tie against El Submarino Amarillo is a considerable opportunity.
The next five games have the potential to solidify Rayo’s hopes of European qualification or greatly hinder them. After Barca and Villarreal, they face a winnable game against Sevilla, but then come Carlo Ancelotti’s men and seventh-place Sociedad. A solid points haul in these games would be priceless.
Despite their home advantage, Rayo are the underdogs at 3.07 with a five-point gap separating them from Villarreal. However, Perez’s men have only been beaten three times at home this season, one of which was a narrow defeat to Barcelona. They tend to score only slightly more than they concede, so both teams to score in a home win at 5.00 could be worth considering.
Barcelona’s reputation, coupled with their remarkable goalscoring form in 2025, means they’re priced at 10.00 to win in Catalonia. They are at 1.61 to even score a goal there. However, if Perez can navigate their games against those around them well, then a Rayo Vallecano return to the European stage is very possible.
They are on their longest unbeaten run in the top-flight ever, and their lack of an outright star player arguably makes their efforts more sustainable. They are also an experienced group, with one of the oldest average ages in the division.
In conclusion, Perez can lead Rayo back to Europe. They will need some luck along the way, and it won’t be smooth sailing, but they aren’t where they are by chance and deserve respect.