CNN
—
President Donald Trump’s claim that the potential “trillion-dollar deal” he is on the cusp of signing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would offer the US easy access to a bonanza of rare earth minerals is at odds with the widespread assessment of current and former US officials who say there’s little actual evidence of great rare earth and other mineral wealth in Ukraine and much of what does exist will be difficult, even impossible, to exploit in the eastern war-torn part of the country.
“We’ll be dig, dig, digging,” Trump told reporters on the eve of Zelensky’s visit. “The American taxpayers will now effectively be reimbursed for the money and hundreds of billions of dollars poured into helping Ukraine defend itself.”
The agreement expected to be signed Friday at the White House could be seen as a coup for an embattled Zelensky, who is giving Trump a deal he can trumpet at a time that US support is faltering.
“It’s an important political undertaking that binds the two countries together,” a senior US official said. “The deal is bigger than subsoil. And it’s politically important for the Ukrainians at this juncture.”
Current and former US officials, as well as analysts and experts, have all emphasized that there isn’t a clear picture of precisely what resources Ukraine has that can be exploited. There appears to be no modern assessment and what is known is based on decades old, Soviet-era mapping.
While Trump has emphasized rare earth minerals and the American need for them, the US Geological Survey says Ukraine has zero proven reserves of rare earth minerals, or processing facilities.
Ukraine does have vast deposits of other minerals like graphite, lithium and titanium, which the US considers critical minerals, but they pale compared to other countries’.
“If we zoom out, on a global scale it’s not a ton,” said Jack Conness, a senior analyst at Energy Innovation. “Generally speaking, it’s not to say these resources don’t exist but we know very little about what there is to offer.”
The idea was originally Zelensky’s and gained steam when he visited the US last September and shopped around his ‘Victory Plan.’ The plan, both Trump and Biden administration officials say, included giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources wealth in exchange for continued US support.
That was shortly before the presidential election and Zelensky presented it to both the Trump and Biden teams, among others.
“It just wasn’t taken as something that was at all realistic,” said a former senior Biden administration official. “That was the part [of the victory plan] we discussed the least.”
“Let me just say that I’m not aware of a single US company that was clamoring to get into the mining business in Ukraine,” the former official added.
For Biden officials, Zelensky’s offer appeared clearly directed at Trump, because Ukraine saw him as transactional and reluctant to continue the same significant levels of US support for the country’s war effort.
A person familiar with the ongoing conversations inside the Trump administration about the deal and war in Ukraine agreed there are no recent surveys of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals that the US government has been able to independently confirm.
A US official familiar with classified intelligence assessments on the issue added that the consensus across the government is that the value of Ukraine’s rare earth and other minerals doesn’t approach the sky-high estimates of various Trump officials.
At first Trump demanded a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earth and other minerals, which Zelensky quickly rejected. On Tuesday Trump said the deal that was agreed to would give Ukraine “$350 billion and lots of equipment, military equipment, and the right to fight on.”
Maps of the estimated mineral deposits – widely considered outdated – show them spread across the country, including some well away from the front line. But deposits aren’t always worth exploiting, experts say, and the most significant potential lies farther east in unstable, contested and Russian-occupied areas.
“Based on what we do know, the vast majority of the deposits appear to be in Russian-controlled territory,” said a second former senior Biden official familiar with the assessments. Others are under land littered by mines and unexploded ordnance.
Extracting, processing and refining minerals, particularly the rare earth variety, can be extraordinarily expensive and take a long time.
“This deal has many complications to it that will make it exceedingly difficult for the US to get the benefits out of it that are being portrayed,” the former official said.
On Thursday, Trump acknowledged the uncertainty about what resources may actually be available to be exploited.
“You never know when it comes to that. You know you dig and maybe things aren’t there like you think they’re there,” Trump said. “But we’ll be spending a lot of time there. It’ll be great for Ukraine. It’s like a huge economic development project. So, it’ll be good for both countries.”
According to a draft of the agreement seen by CNN, it makes no mention of Trump’s claims that Washington could recoup the value of the aid the Biden administration sent to Ukraine.
Instead, it, calls for the establishment of a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to be jointly managed by both countries and used to rebuild the country’s cities and infrastructure.
As the Trump administration presses forward with efforts to end the war, Zelensky’s government has aggressively pressed the Trump administration for security guarantees from Washington to prevent a future Russian invasion.
Trump has resisted, saying he will not send US troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers and that Ukraine shouldn’t be a member of NATO. Two positions critics have said are premature concessions to Russia.
Instead, Trump officials have argued a minerals deal would provide the kind of security assurances Ukraine is looking for because the US would have a vested interest in keeping its projects and revenue safe.
“Of course, the US would protect our assets, for which we are invested in,” National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told Fox News in a Monday interview. “This could mean trillions, not only for the Ukrainian people but for us and for stability for the region. And that economic investment is one of the best security guarantees that Ukraine could hope for.”
The natural resources agreement seen by CNN doesn’t specify the scope, location and types of materials that are expected to be exploited. It leaves more many details to be negotiated in a future agreement for a jointly owned fund.
It defines natural resources as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other extractable materials, along with associated infrastructure.
Russia’s economy may be weakening dramatically but observers believe it still has the mass and manpower to fight on against a Ukraine that has seen millions of its citizens flee and its army facing severe personnel shortages.
“From Zelensky’s perspective what else can he offer the US or the West?” asked the second senior Biden administration official. “They correctly gauged this would be something that would pique the interest of the Trump team.”
“There’s nothing wrong with the US doing a deal,” the former official said. “I just don’t think there’s all that much too it.”
In addition to the uncertainty and impracticality of extracting Ukraine’s minerals, the Biden administration didn’t pursue it because, according to a third Biden official, it felt “very colonial.”