William Saliba has scored in back-to-back games for Arsenal, finding the net from two corner routines.
This follows a pattern set by his central defensive partner, Gabriel, who had scored regularly from set pieces earlier this season.
Although Gabriel is currently out injured, Arsenal’s set pieces are still successful. The Brazilian was absent from the squad for the Champions League victory over AS Monaco on Wednesday, hinting at potential betting opportunities ahead of Everton’s visit to the Emirates.
Odds courtesy of 1xbet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
There’s a new Set Piece Threat in Town
If Gabriel is absent again, William Saliba will become the main Arsenal threat from corners. Last weekend, Saliba was priced at 19.00 to score anytime, but that has now shortened to 12.00 for Saturday’s match.
The main question is whether 12.00 still holds value. Gabriel has scored from three set pieces in the Premier League (and once in Europe), while William Saliba can now add his goals against Fulham and Manchester United to his relatively modest tally.
Either Saliba or Gabriel has scored for Arsenal in five of their last 15 Premier League matches. This has come from crosses sent into the box, following well-executed set-piece routines. Not only that, but Arsenal have also accumulated the highest xG total from set pieces in the division, with 8.84 xG.
A 33% strike rate from five of 15 matches equates to an implied probability that would place the odds between 3.00-4.00. However, calculating odds isn’t this simple.
We would need to consider factors like the opponent and set-piece data. However, this suggests that the odds of 12.00 on William Saliba, likely to be the main protagonist for Arsenal’s set pieces against Everton, are still overpriced. This season, 27.59% of Arsenal’s goals have come from set pieces, with eight goals in 15 games.
A Shot into Row Z at the Emirates Will Be Enough
Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice’s set-piece deliveries are central to Arsenal’s efficiency in scoring from set pieces. The crosses are often perfect, which is impressive considering how often corners fail to reach a teammate and instead hit the first player. Therefore, it’s quite remarkable that Rice and Saka have consistently found Gabriel and Saliba.
Arsenal’s star player, Saka, has registered ten assists in 15 Premier League matches, which highlights how effective his delivery has been. The Premier League record is 20, shared by both Arsenal legend Thierry Henry and Kevin de Bruyne.
If backing a central defender to score isn’t typically your strategy, another option is to back William Saliba to have a shot. With Gabriel in the team, the Frenchman has been shot shy for most of the season. However, in the last two fixtures where the responsibility fell on him to deliver from set pieces, Saliba registered one shot and one goal against Manchester United, along with two attempts and one goal against Fulham.
Gabriel’s high number of shots has made him the top-scoring defender in the Premier League. Gabriel has taken 14 shots across 13 games, with only three fixtures where Gabriel failed to register a shot. That suggests that Arsenal set pieces are accurate and tailored to find and profit from a central defender.
The odds of 2.00 for Saliba to take a shot appear generous. Whether his attempt is blocked, results in a corner, or ends up in Row Z, any shot counted will be considered a winner. A save from the goalkeeper is not required, nor does the shot need to be on target.
Arsenal’s 2.60 shots per 90 in the six-yard box is the highest total in the Premier League. They also boast the highest percentage of all shots per 90 taken in the six-yard box, primarily thanks to set pieces. The Gunners have taken 66 shots from set pieces in just 15 games. Is it too much to expect William Saliba to have just one at the weekend?