Real Madrid suffered yet another emphatic defeat against Barcelona in the final of the Spanish Super Cup.
Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t found the right balance with his team selections, so now might be the time to oppose them in the race for the La Liga title.
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Barcelona Exploited the Space Behind Real’s Attacking Quartet
Los Blancos made a dream start to the Clasico when Kylian Mbappe gave them the lead after five minutes. However, the defensive issues that plagued Ancelotti’s team in their previous meeting with Barcelona resurfaced. As a result, Real went on to lose the game 5-2, despite having a man advantage for over 30 minutes.
Real Madrid have conceded nine goals against Barcelona this season. Defensive injuries haven’t helped their cause, with Aurelien Tchouameni putting in a poor display at centre-back. However, the variety of formations used suggests their problems go beyond that.
Ancelotti has primarily used a 4-3-3 formation, with one of the midfield players pushed higher up (sometimes described as a 4-2-3-1). This formation allows Real to start the attacking quartet of Mbappe, Vinicius, Bellingham and Rodrygo. With so many forward-thinking players who don’t offer a great deal in terms of defensive output, the team have been vulnerable.
Real’s full-backs often have a tendency to make overlapping runs, leaving the centre-backs and deeper midfield players extremely vulnerable to opposition counters. Barcelona were able to exploit this by taking a more direct approach when regaining possession. Robert Lewandowski coming deep to receive the ball allowed the likes of Yamal and Raphinha to run in behind Real’s defensive line to devastating effect. These line-breaking passes to Lewandowski were made easier by the lack of pressure applied on the passer by Real’s attackers. Other clubs could take advantage of this weakness in the months to come.
Real Madrid’s Defensive Statistics Have Worsened
Real Madrid are the odds-on favourites to win the title with most bookmakers, but their inconsistencies in the biggest games suggest their odds don’t represent value. Ancelotti’s team have already lost six times as many games across all competitions this season as they did in the previous campaign. While their average of 2.31 goals per game remains the same, the team have conceded 0.34 more goals per game than last season.
Los Blancos have a favourable run of fixtures in the league, but the handicap betting gives punters an opportunity to exploit their defensive woes. Real face Las Palmas in their next league match. Ancelotti’s team needed a Vinicius penalty to secure a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture. Therefore, backing Diego Martinez’s side +3 in the handicap market appeals here. This bet has won in four of Real’s last five La Liga matches at the Santiago Bernabeu, and it also landed in this fixture last season.
With Real faltering, Atletico Madrid’s odds to win the title also appeal. They have won their last eight matches in La Liga, scoring an average of 2.25 goals per game and conceding just 0.63. Diego Simeone’s side are a point ahead of Los Blancos heading into the weekend’s fixtures and six ahead of Barcelona. There could be an even bigger gap between the teams by the time Los Colchoneros head to the Bernabeu on 9 February, given Atleti’s exceptional form.
With Ancelotti struggling to get the best out of this squad and injuries hindering them even further, now is the time to oppose Real Madrid.