Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Fly Balls for Miles and Miles

Desirable fantasy spot starters generally come in two forms. There’s the high strikeout guy who usually also exhibits spotty control. There’s also the less dominant hurler who exhibits excellent control but is subject to the whims of batted balls in play. Pitchers checking the dominance and control boxes are typically rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues.

Both types have benefits and pitfalls, which are sometimes related to the scoring system. Both are equally risky in points leagues. In category leagues, deciding on a streamer could be driven by needs, especially in a head-to-head format.

The high strikeout version is often preferred since their upside is higher, and perhaps less risky than the pitch-to-contact variety. A more dominant starter is more likely to limit walks in a given start than a control specialist is to miss bats.

However, the perceived mooshy ball being used this season is flipping the script. Balls hit in the air aren’t carrying as much as previous seasons. As such, not only are home runs down, but more deep fly balls are being caught, also reducing doubles and triples. Furthermore, more softly hit fly balls are being captured since outfielders can play in a step or two, and still chase down balls struck over their heads.

The main result is fewer runs are being scored via the home run. Lineups need to string together hits, and hits are down. Pitchers that limit walks benefit even more from the current landscape since more hits are required to keep the line moving. As such, pitchers with better control are less risky to be burned by balls in play compared to past seasons.

From a fantasy perspective, this helps explain the success of Tanner Houck, Jake Irvin, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb and Seth Lugo. In prior years, the narrative would be to sell high since they wouldn’t likely sustain their success with lower strikeout rates, but not in 2024.

It also reduces the risk of streaming less dominant hurlers like Miles Mikolas (8.5% rostered in ESPN leagues). Mikolas sports a high 4.85 ERA, but a 3.92 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest he’s pitched into some misfortune. The culprits are a high 13.5% home run per fly ball level and a low 68.2% left on base mark. This variance is a good reminder that the risk is just lessened, not eliminated.

On Sundays, lineup decisions are often fueled by needs and using Mikolas may be perceived as taking on too much risk. So long as the flight of the ball is tempered, the risk is less concerning. If you need pitching points, trusting Mikolas against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field is a viable option.

This NL Central affair kicks off the Sunday slate at 1:05 PM ET. Thirteen more matinees ensue, with the fantasy week concluding in Fenway Park where the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees in the ESPN Sunday night showcase.

Everything else you need to know for Sunday

• Typically, starting pitchers rostered in over half of ESPN leagues are excluded from a streaming recommendation, but we’ll make an exception for Arizona Diamondbacks SP Jordan Montgomery (52.5% rostered). Montgomery has yet to find a groove after signing late, but a home date with the Chicago White Sox could be the panacea to get back on track. The White Sox are the lowest scoring team for road tilts.

• Minnesota Twins SP Chris Paddack is like Mikolas in that he’s been stingy with the free passes, but he’s sporting a bloated ERA. In Paddack’s case, his 4.79 ERA is deemed over a run too high by a 3.74 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA. The culprit has been a high .338 BABIP, which is odder because Paddack is a fly ball pitcher, hence on paper should benefit from the current landscape. Paddack doesn’t need his luck to change on Sunday; he’s in a great spot regardless facing the Oakland Athletics in Target Field. Only the White Sox are averaging fewer runs per road game.

• Continuing the theme, the Miami Marlins are averaging the third fewest runs per game when away from home. On Sunday, the Marlins wrap up a series in the nation’s capital against the Washington Nationals. Rookie SP Mitchell Parker gets the nod for the home team. Parker is another example of a less dominant arm who has been frugal with bases on balls, fueling a surprising 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. To be fair, his ERA estimators peg Parker around 4.00, but that’s still below league average and he’s facing a less dangerous lineup.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday