How do you rate a transfer? Value for money? The player’s potential? Their previous performances?
We bring you the latest transfer news through our reporters, led by David Ornstein, and our new weekly update The DealSheet (every Tuesday), led by Adam Leventhal. This summer, we want to measure transfers to give you an idea of what to expect before they have kicked a ball for your team.
It’s a difficult task and everyone will have a view. Ideally, there would be a metric we could use to compare one to another.
The reality is there are so many variables (not least future performance) that a perfect metric does not exist — so, here at The Athletic, we have had a go at creating one.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finances — have come together and will rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers against five categories, each given a score out of 100 to reach a total perfect score of 500. Welcome to The Athletic 500.
The five categories (each out of 100)
- Financial value
- Season rating
- Gaming rating
- Tactical fit
- Risk/reward factor
We do not expect everyone to agree with them, or even how we have put them together, but that’s part of the fun. As we said, everyone has a view.
Tosin has joined Chelsea from Fulham (Alex Davidson/Getty Images)
So whether you think Tosin Adarabioyo’s move to Chelsea is the deal of the window or a questionable transfer, we’ve given it a rating out of 500. Over the summer, we will compare how Tosin’s move matches up to others in the market.
Below, we will explain each category in detail. Please enjoy and leave your comments below.
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Financial value
This is where we predict how much value the club has got out of the move. We will incorporate salary, contract length and transfer fee, as well as the player’s age and possible resale value.
Profitability and sustainability rules are an issue for many Premier League clubs, so their financial situations will also play a significant part.
Whereas the other four sections will be a straight mark out of 100, the financial value of every deal will be broken down into four sections out of 25 points each.
These values will be market value, squad cost, contract sensibility and resale value.
Season rating
We’ll be looking at how a player performed in 2023-24 by examining more than 100 data points, split into performance subcomponents. The scoring system takes into account all of a player’s actions, both positive and negative, and rates them across the league season, out of 100.
It is position-specific, so it evaluates each player on the actions relevant to their role in the team and weighs the overall score based on what is expected from a goalkeeper, defender, midfielder or forward.
Gaming rating
Few football clubs can boast as comprehensive a scouting network as the team behind the Football Manager video game. It has more than 1,400 scouts worldwide watching football to prepare each edition of the game, so we have used their ratings to come up with our own.
Rodrigo Gomes (in yellow) has joined Wolves from Braga (Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images)
Football Manager players will be familiar with the grading system (ie, A+ to F) used in their scout reports but behind the scenes, its developers use a 200-point system for current ability and potential ability. A top-rated player would receive over 160 in current ability, which translates as an A or A+.
To create our gaming rating, we have totalled up each player’s current ability and potential ability, then divided it by four to give a figure out of 100.
Tactical fit
We are working with Sentient Sports and using its bespoke tactical fit model — which is out of 100 — designed to evaluate how well a player will slot into a new team by simulating their future performance.
It focuses on two key aspects: the player’s familiarity with the team’s playing style (eg, high-press, possession-based, low-block) and their experience in the formations and positions favoured by the new team’s manager. This should help us identify how a new signing may need to adapt to their new team if the transfer is to be a success.
Risk/reward factor
This is what transfers all come down to, isn’t it? Has the club made the right call?
There will have (hopefully) been long-term planning and real-world scouting on top of data analysis, all coming together to give the club the right player at the right time.
But are there injury concerns? Has the player had a poor season but they were played in the wrong position? Have they played in the league before? Did it work out? Have they excelled or failed under this manager? Do they support your local rivals?
These are all the little factors that can define a transfer’s success or failure. We’ll capture these too and consider them for the final score.
(Top graphic: Eamonn Dalton)